Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Is there parity in the 2007 college football season?
I think so, given the fact that parity means equality in this case. The old adage that any team can beat any other team on any given Saturday has never been more evident than this season.
My analysis shows only 10 of the initial AP Top 25 Poll teams have remained in the Top 25 during the first 9 weeks of the season. The standard bearers are:
No. 1 USC is now ranked 13.
No. 2 LSU is now ranked 3 (the most consistent team all season).
No. 3 West Virginia is now ranked 7.
No. 4 Florida is now ranked 18.
No. 5 Oklahoma is now ranked 5 (they were No. 10 and bounced back).
No. 7 Texas is now ranked 14.
No. 9 Virginia Tech is now ranked 11.
No. 11 Georgia is now ranked 10.
No. 12 Ohio State is now ranked 1.
No. 20 Hawaii is now ranked 12.
Eight late bloomers arrived the second week or after and have remained in the Top 25. They are South Carolina, Oregon and Boston College (8 weeks in the poll), South Florida and Missouri (7 weeks), Arizona State (6 weeks), Kansas (4 weeks) and Michigan (3 weeks).
Michigan lost its first two games, one to AA Appalachian State in one of the biggest upsets in college football history. Big Blue from the Big House has rebounded with 7 straight wins, including victories over Penn State, Purdue and Illinois (the rest were slugs).
Four teams were in the Poll then out and played their way back in. They are Auburn, Boise State, Clemson and Alabama.
Four other teams were in, then out, back in and now back out. They are Penn State, Rutgers, Tennessee and Kansas State.
Ten more teams were in for more than a week, then out and have not been back in. They include California (8 weeks in), Wisconsin and Kentucky (6 weeks), Nebraska (5 weeks), Cincinnati (4 weeks), Louisville and Texas A&M (3 weeks), UCLA, Arkansas and Georgia Tech (2 weeks).
Six other teams have been one-week wonders; they made it into the Top 25, were bounced out the next week, and never returned. They include TCU, Purdue, Illinois, Florida State, Texas Tech and Virginia.
Overall, no less than 44 teams have been represented in the AP Top 25 Poll in the first 9 weeks of the season, that is 37% of the 119 Division 1-A teams eligible for the AP Poll voting by the nation's elite sports writers and broadcasters.
So more than a third of the nation's Division 1-A teams have been in the Top 25 in 9 weeks. Two newcomers this week—Connecticut and Wake Forest—may or may not be in the Poll when this week's 10th Poll appears late Sunday.
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Tuesday, October 30, 2007
College Football 2007 - Week 9: Two Game Scores With Some Hidden Meanings Are 57-43 & 6-0
Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
As if the 2007 college football season has not been confusing enough, along comes week 9 with some hidden game scores that reveal much: 57-43 and 6-0. Both of the scores involve the AP Top 25 Poll teams.
First the 57-43. The only 5 teams still unbeaten remained perfect, 7 others won while 4 more were upset by unranked teams and 3 did not play. To wit:
No. 1 Ohio State (9-0) dominated No. 22 Penn State 37-17, No. 2 Boston College (8-0) came from behind to upend No. 8 Virginia Tech 14-10, No. 7 Arizona State (8-0) beat No. 18 California 31-20, No. 12 Kansas (8-0) moved by Texas A&M 19-11, and No. 16 Hawaii (7-0) ripped New Mexico State 50-13.
Seven other leaders recorded victories, including No. 5 Oregon over No. 9 USC 24-17, No. 6 West Virginia over No. 25 Rutgers 31-3, No.13 Missouri over Iowa State 42-28, No. 17 Texas over Nebraska 28-25, No. 19 Michigan over Minnesota 34-10, No. 20 Georgia over No. 9 Florida 42-30, and No. 23 Auburn over Mississippi 17-3.
Four teams were upset by unranked teams, including No. 11 South Florida falling to Connecticut 22-15, No. 14 Kentucky falling to Mississippi State 31-14, No. 15 South Carolina falling to Tennessee 27-24 in overtime, and No. 21 Virginia falling to North Carolina State 29-24.
The 3 teams that did not play were No. 3 LSU, No. 4 Oklahoma and No. 22 Alabama.
Then the 6-0. The 6 ranked losers which were beaten by other ranked teams—Virginia Tech, Florida, USC, California, Penn State and Rutgers—now have zero chance at playing in the BCS national championship game.
Some important notes from the sidelines:
1) Points, and lots of them, seem to be a common theme this season. Scores have become ridiculous, as witnessed over the weekend when Weber State beat Portland State 73-68 in the highest-scoring game in NCAA history. The score could have been a basketball game.
2) Three unbeaten teams are serious about scoring and defending. Ohio State averages 34 points scoring and gives up only 9 points per game. Kansas scores 42 and gives up 10. Arizona State scores 36 and gives up 15.
3) Ohio State is No. 1 in total defense (yards allowed), Kansas is No. 5 and Arizona State is No. 19.
4) The once bright future of the California Bears and Coach Jeff Tedford just suffered their 3rd straight loss.
5) The Florida Gators and 43-year-old Coach Urban Meyer just dropped their 3rd loss in 4 games to Georgia 42-30. You remember Urban. Prior to this season his career record was 61-12 (83%).
He led Bowling Green to 8-3 and 9-3 seasons, led Utah to 10-2 and 12-0 records and two Mountain West Conference titles, and led Florida to 9-3 and 13-1 seasons during his first two years, winning the BCS national championship last year.
This year he is now 5-3. Southeast Conference opponents have seen Florida for two years under Meyer and have begun to figure out how to stop his Gators. Welcome to the always nasty SEC Urban and break a leg on the way to practice.
6) You can pretty much forget the USC supremacy trip. Pete Carroll's reign as the toast of the nation and Hollywood is all but over. USC is about to join the great unwashed at 6-2.
There are now at least 25 Division I schools with better records than 6-2. The road ahead for USC includes Oregon State (The Civil War), California, still unbeaten Arizona State and UCLA, all salivating at a chance to humble the Trojans.
7) Coach Steve Spurrier's great comeback at South Carolina has hit a brick wall with its overtime loss to Tennessee, handing the Gamecocks their 3rd loss.
8) Expect a Northwest earthquake Saturday when No. 7 Arizona State invades No. 5 Oregon. Expect road kill in the South as No. 3 LSU invades No. 22 Alabama. First year Coaches Dennis Erickson at Arizona State and Nick Saban at Alabama will have their hands full.
9) My poor alma mater Michigan State is now officially sucking pond water and folding faster than a K-Mart deck chair, losing 3 of its last 4 after starting the season at 4-0. The Spartans have folded almost every year for the last too many years.
I believe Mark Dantonio will turn things around at MSU, just not this year. The Spartans lost to Wisconsin by a field goal and then lost in overtime to Northwestern and Iowa.
Dantonio apparently inherited more slugs than a Northwest garden. For the uninitiated, a native Northwest slug is a tough-skinned, slow-witted terrestrial (as in ground crawling) mollusk that lacks a shell and secretes a film of mucus.
In football, speed kills. Dantonio needs more speed everywhere, and he needs some players who, if they do not want to win badly enough, refuse to lose until they learn how to win. Culture might be an academic subject, but on the football field it is all about environment, a winning environment.
10) The Washington Huskies did the unthinkable Saturday, they lost at home to Arizona, 48-41, and are now 2-6. Ty Willingham's charges must now win their last 5 games to finish 7-6 and earn a bowl bid.
Is it possible? Anything is possible with parity, but do not ask the Huskies, ask their next 5 opponents: Stanford, Oregon State, California, Washington State and Hawaii.
The Huskies are short on wins, full of mistakes and flat out of excuses. They are exciting to watch, full of explosive offense, a crappy defense and have started to develop a stench from losing.
A word to the wise: If the Huskies cannot get a victory, they need to get angry, very angry, legally violent and start hitting players and hurting players. Hurt your opponent enough and they will not be able to run over you, around you and by you.
If you cannot tackle or will not tackle, sit on the bench and write letters home to your mother about how tough it is to be a Husky at Washington.
I do not know about you, but I am not going to get kicked in the face 45 times before I get up and hurt somebody. I do not care if they are bigger or more talented, they are going to get hurt, and hurt bad.
Note: See my articles on "How to Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss" and "The Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them" in my Sports Archive.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
As if the 2007 college football season has not been confusing enough, along comes week 9 with some hidden game scores that reveal much: 57-43 and 6-0. Both of the scores involve the AP Top 25 Poll teams.
First the 57-43. The only 5 teams still unbeaten remained perfect, 7 others won while 4 more were upset by unranked teams and 3 did not play. To wit:
No. 1 Ohio State (9-0) dominated No. 22 Penn State 37-17, No. 2 Boston College (8-0) came from behind to upend No. 8 Virginia Tech 14-10, No. 7 Arizona State (8-0) beat No. 18 California 31-20, No. 12 Kansas (8-0) moved by Texas A&M 19-11, and No. 16 Hawaii (7-0) ripped New Mexico State 50-13.
Seven other leaders recorded victories, including No. 5 Oregon over No. 9 USC 24-17, No. 6 West Virginia over No. 25 Rutgers 31-3, No.13 Missouri over Iowa State 42-28, No. 17 Texas over Nebraska 28-25, No. 19 Michigan over Minnesota 34-10, No. 20 Georgia over No. 9 Florida 42-30, and No. 23 Auburn over Mississippi 17-3.
Four teams were upset by unranked teams, including No. 11 South Florida falling to Connecticut 22-15, No. 14 Kentucky falling to Mississippi State 31-14, No. 15 South Carolina falling to Tennessee 27-24 in overtime, and No. 21 Virginia falling to North Carolina State 29-24.
The 3 teams that did not play were No. 3 LSU, No. 4 Oklahoma and No. 22 Alabama.
Then the 6-0. The 6 ranked losers which were beaten by other ranked teams—Virginia Tech, Florida, USC, California, Penn State and Rutgers—now have zero chance at playing in the BCS national championship game.
Some important notes from the sidelines:
1) Points, and lots of them, seem to be a common theme this season. Scores have become ridiculous, as witnessed over the weekend when Weber State beat Portland State 73-68 in the highest-scoring game in NCAA history. The score could have been a basketball game.
2) Three unbeaten teams are serious about scoring and defending. Ohio State averages 34 points scoring and gives up only 9 points per game. Kansas scores 42 and gives up 10. Arizona State scores 36 and gives up 15.
3) Ohio State is No. 1 in total defense (yards allowed), Kansas is No. 5 and Arizona State is No. 19.
4) The once bright future of the California Bears and Coach Jeff Tedford just suffered their 3rd straight loss.
5) The Florida Gators and 43-year-old Coach Urban Meyer just dropped their 3rd loss in 4 games to Georgia 42-30. You remember Urban. Prior to this season his career record was 61-12 (83%).
He led Bowling Green to 8-3 and 9-3 seasons, led Utah to 10-2 and 12-0 records and two Mountain West Conference titles, and led Florida to 9-3 and 13-1 seasons during his first two years, winning the BCS national championship last year.
This year he is now 5-3. Southeast Conference opponents have seen Florida for two years under Meyer and have begun to figure out how to stop his Gators. Welcome to the always nasty SEC Urban and break a leg on the way to practice.
6) You can pretty much forget the USC supremacy trip. Pete Carroll's reign as the toast of the nation and Hollywood is all but over. USC is about to join the great unwashed at 6-2.
There are now at least 25 Division I schools with better records than 6-2. The road ahead for USC includes Oregon State (The Civil War), California, still unbeaten Arizona State and UCLA, all salivating at a chance to humble the Trojans.
7) Coach Steve Spurrier's great comeback at South Carolina has hit a brick wall with its overtime loss to Tennessee, handing the Gamecocks their 3rd loss.
8) Expect a Northwest earthquake Saturday when No. 7 Arizona State invades No. 5 Oregon. Expect road kill in the South as No. 3 LSU invades No. 22 Alabama. First year Coaches Dennis Erickson at Arizona State and Nick Saban at Alabama will have their hands full.
9) My poor alma mater Michigan State is now officially sucking pond water and folding faster than a K-Mart deck chair, losing 3 of its last 4 after starting the season at 4-0. The Spartans have folded almost every year for the last too many years.
I believe Mark Dantonio will turn things around at MSU, just not this year. The Spartans lost to Wisconsin by a field goal and then lost in overtime to Northwestern and Iowa.
Dantonio apparently inherited more slugs than a Northwest garden. For the uninitiated, a native Northwest slug is a tough-skinned, slow-witted terrestrial (as in ground crawling) mollusk that lacks a shell and secretes a film of mucus.
In football, speed kills. Dantonio needs more speed everywhere, and he needs some players who, if they do not want to win badly enough, refuse to lose until they learn how to win. Culture might be an academic subject, but on the football field it is all about environment, a winning environment.
10) The Washington Huskies did the unthinkable Saturday, they lost at home to Arizona, 48-41, and are now 2-6. Ty Willingham's charges must now win their last 5 games to finish 7-6 and earn a bowl bid.
Is it possible? Anything is possible with parity, but do not ask the Huskies, ask their next 5 opponents: Stanford, Oregon State, California, Washington State and Hawaii.
The Huskies are short on wins, full of mistakes and flat out of excuses. They are exciting to watch, full of explosive offense, a crappy defense and have started to develop a stench from losing.
A word to the wise: If the Huskies cannot get a victory, they need to get angry, very angry, legally violent and start hitting players and hurting players. Hurt your opponent enough and they will not be able to run over you, around you and by you.
If you cannot tackle or will not tackle, sit on the bench and write letters home to your mother about how tough it is to be a Husky at Washington.
I do not know about you, but I am not going to get kicked in the face 45 times before I get up and hurt somebody. I do not care if they are bigger or more talented, they are going to get hurt, and hurt bad.
Note: See my articles on "How to Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss" and "The Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them" in my Sports Archive.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
College Football 2007: Who Would You Rather Be Now, Arizona State or Washington?
Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Loyal University of Washington fans should be heartened by the fact that the Huskies played No. 7-ranked Oregon to a 31-31 tie through three quarters Saturday (10-20-07) before being outscored 24-3 in the fourth quarter and losing 55-34.
Up until Saturday's confrontation at home against the Ducks, the Huskies had pretty much lost it coming out of the locker room for the second half.
The media coverage following the loss concentrated mostly on the Huskies giving up 661 yards to Oregon's high-scoring offense, 465 rushing yards and a career-high 251 rushing yards to Duck tailback Jonathan Stewart, a product of Timberline High School in Lacey, who should have been a Husky.
Instead of acknowledging the fact that Oregon gave up 34 points in its win, the media drew attention to the fact that the loose rushing defense caused the Huskies to drop to 118th in rushing defense among 119 major college teams, and rank 107th overall in defensive yards allowed.
Heck, at least half if not three quarters of the teams in America would be exactly where the Husky defense is ranked if they had played Washington's schedule through the first seven games. Washington has played the toughest schedule for the last five weeks among 242 Division I teams.
The Husky defense is not as bad as the statistics would suggest. For one thing, Washington has no depth anywhere and by the 4th quarter, not only were too many players out of position, they were winded from being on the field with Oregon's offense for more than 34 minutes.
For another, Washington has played 5 nationally-ranked teams straight up halfway through those games, leading in 3 of them against Ohio State (only the current No. 1 team in the country), USC (then ranked No. 2) and No. 12-ranked Arizona State.
Here is a news flash: Washington was supposed to lose to Oregon. I predicted it weeks ago.
Rather than focus on everything that was not happening against Oregon, let's recognize what did happen:
1) Redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Locker threw an 83-yard touchdown pass to senior wide receiver Anthony Russo, the 4th-longest TD pass in Husky history. Russo now has at least one reception in 31 consecutive games.
2) Jake Locker threw a 26-yard touchdown pass to senior wide receiver Marcel Reese.
3) Jake Locker threw a 43-yard touchdown pass to senior tailback Louis Rankin, the longest reception of his career.
4) Jake Locker threw another touchdown pass to Marcel Reese, this one for 38 yards.
5) Louis Rankin racked up 238 all purpose yards, 132 in kickoff returns, 73 in rushing (a 6.6 yard average per carry) and 43 receiving.
6) Jake Locker added 78 yards rushing at 6.0 yards per carry.
I fully expect Washington to lose to California for its 6th loss of the year, after all, California is not like playing against the scout team in practice.
On the plus side, I fully expect Washington to beat Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State and Hawaii to end the season with a 7-6 mark and play in a bowl game.
I do not care if the Huskies win in the last minute or if they win by a field goal, a safety or an extra point. If flat does not matter. I do not care if the Huskies finish dead last in rushing defense or overall defense.
Hawaii has won games by 45-44 in overtime against Louisiana Tech, 42-35 in overtime against San Jose State, 52-37 against Utah State, 63-6 against AA Northern California and 66-10 against AA Charleston Southern. Hawaii is 7-0 and currently ranked No. 16 in the AP Top 25 Poll.
If Hawaii can pull off such wonder I think Washington can do the same against better competition.
The Huskies have been through hell and back and have survived. They are getting better and better offensively.
If you think things cannot get worse, check out Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-7 in the Big 10 and still have to play Michigan, Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin. Their lone win came against a mediocre Miami of Ohio team 41-35 in overtime. My guess is they drink an awful lot after games at Minnesota.
Dennis Erickson and his Sun Devils are 7-0 and riding high, but they still have to play California, Oregon, UCLA, USC and Arizona. Have fun, and good luck Dennis.
Who would you rather be now, Arizona State or Washington?
The fun for fans in Huskyville is just beginning. Strap on your shoulder pads, paint your face and put on your helmet because things are going to get better.
Editor's Note: Pop the top on a cool one or uncork a bottle of wine and check out my sports articles. Nobody is writing what I am writing because they do not have big enough grapefruits.
Editor's Note: Get a Free Analysis of PIP, Empowerism and SFI for Affiliate Marketers. Email me at: edbagley@comcast.net and put "Subscribe List 2" in the Subject Line.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Loyal University of Washington fans should be heartened by the fact that the Huskies played No. 7-ranked Oregon to a 31-31 tie through three quarters Saturday (10-20-07) before being outscored 24-3 in the fourth quarter and losing 55-34.
Up until Saturday's confrontation at home against the Ducks, the Huskies had pretty much lost it coming out of the locker room for the second half.
The media coverage following the loss concentrated mostly on the Huskies giving up 661 yards to Oregon's high-scoring offense, 465 rushing yards and a career-high 251 rushing yards to Duck tailback Jonathan Stewart, a product of Timberline High School in Lacey, who should have been a Husky.
Instead of acknowledging the fact that Oregon gave up 34 points in its win, the media drew attention to the fact that the loose rushing defense caused the Huskies to drop to 118th in rushing defense among 119 major college teams, and rank 107th overall in defensive yards allowed.
Heck, at least half if not three quarters of the teams in America would be exactly where the Husky defense is ranked if they had played Washington's schedule through the first seven games. Washington has played the toughest schedule for the last five weeks among 242 Division I teams.
The Husky defense is not as bad as the statistics would suggest. For one thing, Washington has no depth anywhere and by the 4th quarter, not only were too many players out of position, they were winded from being on the field with Oregon's offense for more than 34 minutes.
For another, Washington has played 5 nationally-ranked teams straight up halfway through those games, leading in 3 of them against Ohio State (only the current No. 1 team in the country), USC (then ranked No. 2) and No. 12-ranked Arizona State.
Here is a news flash: Washington was supposed to lose to Oregon. I predicted it weeks ago.
Rather than focus on everything that was not happening against Oregon, let's recognize what did happen:
1) Redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Locker threw an 83-yard touchdown pass to senior wide receiver Anthony Russo, the 4th-longest TD pass in Husky history. Russo now has at least one reception in 31 consecutive games.
2) Jake Locker threw a 26-yard touchdown pass to senior wide receiver Marcel Reese.
3) Jake Locker threw a 43-yard touchdown pass to senior tailback Louis Rankin, the longest reception of his career.
4) Jake Locker threw another touchdown pass to Marcel Reese, this one for 38 yards.
5) Louis Rankin racked up 238 all purpose yards, 132 in kickoff returns, 73 in rushing (a 6.6 yard average per carry) and 43 receiving.
6) Jake Locker added 78 yards rushing at 6.0 yards per carry.
I fully expect Washington to lose to California for its 6th loss of the year, after all, California is not like playing against the scout team in practice.
On the plus side, I fully expect Washington to beat Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State and Hawaii to end the season with a 7-6 mark and play in a bowl game.
I do not care if the Huskies win in the last minute or if they win by a field goal, a safety or an extra point. If flat does not matter. I do not care if the Huskies finish dead last in rushing defense or overall defense.
Hawaii has won games by 45-44 in overtime against Louisiana Tech, 42-35 in overtime against San Jose State, 52-37 against Utah State, 63-6 against AA Northern California and 66-10 against AA Charleston Southern. Hawaii is 7-0 and currently ranked No. 16 in the AP Top 25 Poll.
If Hawaii can pull off such wonder I think Washington can do the same against better competition.
The Huskies have been through hell and back and have survived. They are getting better and better offensively.
If you think things cannot get worse, check out Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-7 in the Big 10 and still have to play Michigan, Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin. Their lone win came against a mediocre Miami of Ohio team 41-35 in overtime. My guess is they drink an awful lot after games at Minnesota.
Dennis Erickson and his Sun Devils are 7-0 and riding high, but they still have to play California, Oregon, UCLA, USC and Arizona. Have fun, and good luck Dennis.
Who would you rather be now, Arizona State or Washington?
The fun for fans in Huskyville is just beginning. Strap on your shoulder pads, paint your face and put on your helmet because things are going to get better.
Editor's Note: Pop the top on a cool one or uncork a bottle of wine and check out my sports articles. Nobody is writing what I am writing because they do not have big enough grapefruits.
Editor's Note: Get a Free Analysis of PIP, Empowerism and SFI for Affiliate Marketers. Email me at: edbagley@comcast.net and put "Subscribe List 2" in the Subject Line.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
College Football - Week 8: 7 Top 25 Teams Suffer Defeat, including South Florida
Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Seven AP Top 25 teams were upset over the weekend, none more stunningly than No. 2-ranked and previously unbeaten South Florida. The Bulls looked awesome this season until losing to Rutgers 30-27 on the road.
South Florida, who many thought was THAT good, is now at best 6-1 and at worst a paper tiger.
The Bulls still have to travel to Connecticut, Syracuse and Pittsburgh, and host Cincinnati and Louisville at home. Connecticut is 6-1, Cincinnati is 6-2 and Pittsburgh just upset No. 23-ranked Cincinnati, 24-17.
Of the 6 unbeaten teams going into the weekend—Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Arizona State, Kansas and Hawaii—I predicted that South Florida and Arizona State had the best chance of finishing undefeated. So much for the South Florida prediction.
Boston College, Arizona State and Hawaii—all 7-0—were out of harm's way as they did not play. Make a mental note of the fact that Arizona State is ranked No. 4 in scoring defense, giving up only 15 points per game.
No. 1-ranked Ohio State and No. 15-ranked Kansas remained undefeated as the 8-0 Buckeyes eased by Michigan State 24-17 at home, and the 7-0 Jayhawks traveled to Colorado and won 19-14.
Ohio State has the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation, giving up only 7.9 points per game.
Kansas has the No. 2 scoring defense, giving up 10.1 ppg. If you think defense wins championships, you are right.
Earning the short end of the stick were:
1) Steve Spurrier's No. 6-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks hosted Vanderbilt and lost, 17-6, giving the Commodores their biggest win in 70 years. Vanderbilt's last big win was a 7-6 victory over No. 6 LSU in 1937, evidence of how ineffective Vanderbilt has been during the last 70 years. Imagine being in charge of fundraising for the Vanderbilt football program for the last 69 years.
The defeat had to be awful for Spurrier whose South Carolina team had been looking better and better on its climb up the Top 25.
2) No. 8-ranked Kentucky hosted No. 14-ranked Florida and promptly was outscored 45-37.
3) The No. 10-ranked California Bears traveled to UCLA and lost 30-21 to the Bruins. UCLA is like a yo-yo this year. The formerly 10th-ranked Bruins took a butt whipping at Utah, 44-6, then hosted Notre Dame and lost 20-6, giving the 1-7 Irish their only win of the year. It made perfect sense that UCLA would then upset California.
There is, of course, no truth to the rumor that Bruin players underwent psychological testing.
4) No. 20-ranked Tennessee traveled to Alabama and got slammed 41-17. Keep your eye on Nick Saban's Crimson Tide who are now 6-2 and host LSU this Saturday.
5) As mentioned earlier, No. 23-ranked Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh 24-17.
6) No. 25-ranked Kansas State had trouble on the road, getting nipped by Oklahoma State 41-39.
The new AP Top 25 Poll shows Arizona State leaping from No. 12 to No. 7, Florida from No. 14 to No. 9, and Michigan from No. 24 to No. 19.
Entering the Top 25 this week was Virginia at No. 21, Alabama at No. 22, Penn State at No. 24 and Rutgers at No. 25. All except Virginia were ranked in the Top 25 earlier in the season.
So the new Top 10 after week 8 are: 1 Ohio State, 2 Boston College, 3 LSU, 4 Oklahoma, 5 Oregon, 6 West Virginia, 7 Arizona State, 8 Virginia Tech and tied for 9 USC and Florida.
I have to give props to Ohio State (No. 1) and Kansas (No. 2) because of their defense, but the best balanced scoring offense and scoring defense is Kansas as the Jayhawks are also No. 3 in scoring offense while Ohio State is No. 33.
Dennis Erickson has his Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 4 in scoring defense and No. 12 in scoring offense. Oklahoma is No. 5 in offense and No. 12 in defense. West Virginia is No. 7 in offense and No. 10 in defense. These figures are among 119 Division 1-A schools.
Sagarin's Ratings have the Top 10 in this order: 1 LSU, 2 Kansas, 3 Ohio State, 4 Arizona State, 5 South Florida, 6 Oregon, 7 West Virginia, 8 Florida, 9 Oklahoma, and 10 Boston College. For some fans, this is a more accurate guide to who the fanny-kickers really are.
For the record, the worst of the worst is 0-7 Florida International. The Golden Panthers are not so golden. They lost again Saturday to Louisiana-Monroe 28-14, extending their losing streak to 19 consecutive games, the longest in the nation.
Yes, Florida International does have a football team, just not much of a football team. The Golden Panthers rank dead last (No. 119) in scoring offense (8 ppg) and No. 114 in scoring defense (34 ppg). No wonder they are 0-7 and 0-19 in their last 19 games.
Florida International joined Duke last year as the only other winless team in Division 1-A. I had to look up their nickname, a sure sign that they are not worthy to even be on my radar screen. Unless they start winning, their nickname may as well be: Florida Who?
Note: Check out my newly reorganized Sports Section, it's fantablous (fan-tab-u-lous).
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Seven AP Top 25 teams were upset over the weekend, none more stunningly than No. 2-ranked and previously unbeaten South Florida. The Bulls looked awesome this season until losing to Rutgers 30-27 on the road.
South Florida, who many thought was THAT good, is now at best 6-1 and at worst a paper tiger.
The Bulls still have to travel to Connecticut, Syracuse and Pittsburgh, and host Cincinnati and Louisville at home. Connecticut is 6-1, Cincinnati is 6-2 and Pittsburgh just upset No. 23-ranked Cincinnati, 24-17.
Of the 6 unbeaten teams going into the weekend—Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Arizona State, Kansas and Hawaii—I predicted that South Florida and Arizona State had the best chance of finishing undefeated. So much for the South Florida prediction.
Boston College, Arizona State and Hawaii—all 7-0—were out of harm's way as they did not play. Make a mental note of the fact that Arizona State is ranked No. 4 in scoring defense, giving up only 15 points per game.
No. 1-ranked Ohio State and No. 15-ranked Kansas remained undefeated as the 8-0 Buckeyes eased by Michigan State 24-17 at home, and the 7-0 Jayhawks traveled to Colorado and won 19-14.
Ohio State has the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation, giving up only 7.9 points per game.
Kansas has the No. 2 scoring defense, giving up 10.1 ppg. If you think defense wins championships, you are right.
Earning the short end of the stick were:
1) Steve Spurrier's No. 6-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks hosted Vanderbilt and lost, 17-6, giving the Commodores their biggest win in 70 years. Vanderbilt's last big win was a 7-6 victory over No. 6 LSU in 1937, evidence of how ineffective Vanderbilt has been during the last 70 years. Imagine being in charge of fundraising for the Vanderbilt football program for the last 69 years.
The defeat had to be awful for Spurrier whose South Carolina team had been looking better and better on its climb up the Top 25.
2) No. 8-ranked Kentucky hosted No. 14-ranked Florida and promptly was outscored 45-37.
3) The No. 10-ranked California Bears traveled to UCLA and lost 30-21 to the Bruins. UCLA is like a yo-yo this year. The formerly 10th-ranked Bruins took a butt whipping at Utah, 44-6, then hosted Notre Dame and lost 20-6, giving the 1-7 Irish their only win of the year. It made perfect sense that UCLA would then upset California.
There is, of course, no truth to the rumor that Bruin players underwent psychological testing.
4) No. 20-ranked Tennessee traveled to Alabama and got slammed 41-17. Keep your eye on Nick Saban's Crimson Tide who are now 6-2 and host LSU this Saturday.
5) As mentioned earlier, No. 23-ranked Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh 24-17.
6) No. 25-ranked Kansas State had trouble on the road, getting nipped by Oklahoma State 41-39.
The new AP Top 25 Poll shows Arizona State leaping from No. 12 to No. 7, Florida from No. 14 to No. 9, and Michigan from No. 24 to No. 19.
Entering the Top 25 this week was Virginia at No. 21, Alabama at No. 22, Penn State at No. 24 and Rutgers at No. 25. All except Virginia were ranked in the Top 25 earlier in the season.
So the new Top 10 after week 8 are: 1 Ohio State, 2 Boston College, 3 LSU, 4 Oklahoma, 5 Oregon, 6 West Virginia, 7 Arizona State, 8 Virginia Tech and tied for 9 USC and Florida.
I have to give props to Ohio State (No. 1) and Kansas (No. 2) because of their defense, but the best balanced scoring offense and scoring defense is Kansas as the Jayhawks are also No. 3 in scoring offense while Ohio State is No. 33.
Dennis Erickson has his Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 4 in scoring defense and No. 12 in scoring offense. Oklahoma is No. 5 in offense and No. 12 in defense. West Virginia is No. 7 in offense and No. 10 in defense. These figures are among 119 Division 1-A schools.
Sagarin's Ratings have the Top 10 in this order: 1 LSU, 2 Kansas, 3 Ohio State, 4 Arizona State, 5 South Florida, 6 Oregon, 7 West Virginia, 8 Florida, 9 Oklahoma, and 10 Boston College. For some fans, this is a more accurate guide to who the fanny-kickers really are.
For the record, the worst of the worst is 0-7 Florida International. The Golden Panthers are not so golden. They lost again Saturday to Louisiana-Monroe 28-14, extending their losing streak to 19 consecutive games, the longest in the nation.
Yes, Florida International does have a football team, just not much of a football team. The Golden Panthers rank dead last (No. 119) in scoring offense (8 ppg) and No. 114 in scoring defense (34 ppg). No wonder they are 0-7 and 0-19 in their last 19 games.
Florida International joined Duke last year as the only other winless team in Division 1-A. I had to look up their nickname, a sure sign that they are not worthy to even be on my radar screen. Unless they start winning, their nickname may as well be: Florida Who?
Note: Check out my newly reorganized Sports Section, it's fantablous (fan-tab-u-lous).
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Meet the Nation's Most Statistically Incredible Team: The University of Washington Huskies
Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
University of Washington football fans came up on the short end of the stick Saturday (10-13-07) when the Arizona State Sun Devils blew into Seattle and extended their winning streak to 7 with a 44-20 second half victory.
The Sun Devils outscored Washington in the third quarter 21-0 and in the second half 31-3, and it is a good thing because if the game had ended at the half, Washington would have won 17-13.
Therein lies the challenge of the youthful, inexperienced Washington Huskies: they played a terrible 3rd quarter and have not yet learned how to win games.
This statistic would not mean much unless you know that:
Washington led then No. 10-ranked Ohio State 7-3 at the half and lost 33-14 in its 3rd game.
Washington was tied with then No. 27-rated UCLA 10-10 at the half and lost 44-31 in its 4th game.
Washington led then No. 1-ranked Southern Cal 17-14 at the half and lost 27-24 in its 5th game.
Washington led then No. 12-ranked Arizona State 17-13 at the half and lost 44-20 in its 6th game.
You better believe that Sun Devil Coach Dennis Erickson was more than sweating bullets after watching redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Locker scamper for a 32-yard touchdown run with 4:11 to go in the first half, giving Washington its 17-13 lead.
Do Husky fans realize that if each of these games ended at the half, Washington's record would be 5-0-1 rather than 2-4?
Washington would have an unbeaten record after polishing off Syracuse 42-12 in an away game and upsetting then No. 22-ranked Boise State 24-10 in its first two games.
Please, do not be sophomoric (as in sometimes moronic) and remind me that a game lasts 60 minutes and only the final score counts. To do so would ignore the point I am making.
You could with fairness make the point that the Huskies have been tripping over themselves coming out of the locker room to start the second half of their last 4 games.
Why this has been happening leaves Coach Ty Willingham clueless. He is quoted in the Tacoma News Tribune (10-14-07 edition) as saying, "It's obviously a difficult thing to talk about because I don't have a solution to it."
Willingham, a man of heretofore impeccable standards and integrity, is also honest. Less than 1% of all college football coaches would not publicly repeat Willingham's admission.
One thing is for sure: Whatever Willingham and his coaching staff members are saying or not saying to Husky players at halftime, it is not working worth a crap and needs to be changed.
Do not tell me that the same Husky players who might play above their head with guts and enthusiasm in the first half go brain dead and unfeeling during the second half. I would love to be a bee on the wall in Washington's locker room at halftime and see what—if any—stinging comments are made.
As a certified Monday morning quarterback and coach, this would be the first words out of my mouth at halftime during the Arizona State game:
"Let me be the first to congratulate you on a phenomenal first half. Arizona State made some mistakes in the first half and we did too, but you are leading the unbeaten and No. 12-ranked team in the country at halftime, 17-13.
"Some people would say that the Sun Devils have more talent on their team than we do, but we lead at the half, 17-13.
"Others would say that the Sun Devils have an unbeaten record and our record is 2-3, but we lead at the half, 17-13.
"Still others would say that the Sun Devils are ranked No. 12 in the country and since we are not ranked in the Top 25, they will win this game, but we lead at the half, 17-13.
"Now, we are going to quickly hand everyone a slip of paper and a pen, and by secret ballot I want you to quickly write down which player you think is the leader of this team."
After the ballots are immediately collected and Jake Locker's name is on every ballot or almost every ballot, I would say this:
"Jake, you may be a redshirt freshman but your teammates believe you are the leader of the Washington Husky football team.
"I want you, Jake, to get up right now and tell the coaching staff and your fellow teammates why we can win the second half of this game, how we are going to do it, and what it will take to do it."
I would then, as the head coach, sit down, shut up and listen. After Jake is done with whatever he says, I would ask any other player who received a vote as THE team leader to get up and do the same thing.
Let the players convince themselves and believe they can do in the second half what they did in the first half: outscore the opponent. Do that and Washington upsets its opponent.
Now, why is Washington the nation's most statistically incredible team?
1) The Huskies are rated No. 41 in the Sagarin Ratings.
2) Their current record is 2-4.
3) They are rated No. 1 for having played—for the 4th consecutive week—the toughest schedule among all 242 Division I-A and 1-AA teams.
4) There is not another team among Sagarin's first 40 rated teams with less than 4 wins.
5) The next highest rated Sagarin team with only 2 wins is No. 60 North Carolina at 2-5.
6) The Huskies, as Sagarin's 41st best rated team in the nation, are ahead of No. 42 Alabama (5-2), No. 44 Wisconsin (5-2 and ranked No. 5 in the AP Poll just two weeks ago), No. 46 Louisville (4-3), No. 48 Texas A&M (5-2), No. 51 Air Force (5-2), and No. 52 Indiana (5-2). Not too shabby, as the former Opera Man (Adam Sandler) would say on Saturday Night Live.
7) The highest rated team with the same 2-4 record as Washington is Stanford at No. 68. Stanford has played the 4th toughest schedule in the country.
8) North Carolina, which has a 2-5 record, is rated No. 60. The Tar Heels have played the 3rd toughest schedule through college football's week 7.
I know, now you wonder who has played the 2nd toughest schedule. It is 1-6 Notre Dame.
I expect the Huskies to lose against Oregon (hopefully not by 53-7 like cross-state rival Washington State) and California. I predicted this two weeks ago on October 3.
I also predicted on October 3 that Washington would beat (in order) Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State and Hawaii, finishing the year at 7-6. Hang on, Husky fans, the best is yet to come.
Note: See my articles on "How to Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss" and "The Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them" in my Sports Archive.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
University of Washington football fans came up on the short end of the stick Saturday (10-13-07) when the Arizona State Sun Devils blew into Seattle and extended their winning streak to 7 with a 44-20 second half victory.
The Sun Devils outscored Washington in the third quarter 21-0 and in the second half 31-3, and it is a good thing because if the game had ended at the half, Washington would have won 17-13.
Therein lies the challenge of the youthful, inexperienced Washington Huskies: they played a terrible 3rd quarter and have not yet learned how to win games.
This statistic would not mean much unless you know that:
Washington led then No. 10-ranked Ohio State 7-3 at the half and lost 33-14 in its 3rd game.
Washington was tied with then No. 27-rated UCLA 10-10 at the half and lost 44-31 in its 4th game.
Washington led then No. 1-ranked Southern Cal 17-14 at the half and lost 27-24 in its 5th game.
Washington led then No. 12-ranked Arizona State 17-13 at the half and lost 44-20 in its 6th game.
You better believe that Sun Devil Coach Dennis Erickson was more than sweating bullets after watching redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Locker scamper for a 32-yard touchdown run with 4:11 to go in the first half, giving Washington its 17-13 lead.
Do Husky fans realize that if each of these games ended at the half, Washington's record would be 5-0-1 rather than 2-4?
Washington would have an unbeaten record after polishing off Syracuse 42-12 in an away game and upsetting then No. 22-ranked Boise State 24-10 in its first two games.
Please, do not be sophomoric (as in sometimes moronic) and remind me that a game lasts 60 minutes and only the final score counts. To do so would ignore the point I am making.
You could with fairness make the point that the Huskies have been tripping over themselves coming out of the locker room to start the second half of their last 4 games.
Why this has been happening leaves Coach Ty Willingham clueless. He is quoted in the Tacoma News Tribune (10-14-07 edition) as saying, "It's obviously a difficult thing to talk about because I don't have a solution to it."
Willingham, a man of heretofore impeccable standards and integrity, is also honest. Less than 1% of all college football coaches would not publicly repeat Willingham's admission.
One thing is for sure: Whatever Willingham and his coaching staff members are saying or not saying to Husky players at halftime, it is not working worth a crap and needs to be changed.
Do not tell me that the same Husky players who might play above their head with guts and enthusiasm in the first half go brain dead and unfeeling during the second half. I would love to be a bee on the wall in Washington's locker room at halftime and see what—if any—stinging comments are made.
As a certified Monday morning quarterback and coach, this would be the first words out of my mouth at halftime during the Arizona State game:
"Let me be the first to congratulate you on a phenomenal first half. Arizona State made some mistakes in the first half and we did too, but you are leading the unbeaten and No. 12-ranked team in the country at halftime, 17-13.
"Some people would say that the Sun Devils have more talent on their team than we do, but we lead at the half, 17-13.
"Others would say that the Sun Devils have an unbeaten record and our record is 2-3, but we lead at the half, 17-13.
"Still others would say that the Sun Devils are ranked No. 12 in the country and since we are not ranked in the Top 25, they will win this game, but we lead at the half, 17-13.
"Now, we are going to quickly hand everyone a slip of paper and a pen, and by secret ballot I want you to quickly write down which player you think is the leader of this team."
After the ballots are immediately collected and Jake Locker's name is on every ballot or almost every ballot, I would say this:
"Jake, you may be a redshirt freshman but your teammates believe you are the leader of the Washington Husky football team.
"I want you, Jake, to get up right now and tell the coaching staff and your fellow teammates why we can win the second half of this game, how we are going to do it, and what it will take to do it."
I would then, as the head coach, sit down, shut up and listen. After Jake is done with whatever he says, I would ask any other player who received a vote as THE team leader to get up and do the same thing.
Let the players convince themselves and believe they can do in the second half what they did in the first half: outscore the opponent. Do that and Washington upsets its opponent.
Now, why is Washington the nation's most statistically incredible team?
1) The Huskies are rated No. 41 in the Sagarin Ratings.
2) Their current record is 2-4.
3) They are rated No. 1 for having played—for the 4th consecutive week—the toughest schedule among all 242 Division I-A and 1-AA teams.
4) There is not another team among Sagarin's first 40 rated teams with less than 4 wins.
5) The next highest rated Sagarin team with only 2 wins is No. 60 North Carolina at 2-5.
6) The Huskies, as Sagarin's 41st best rated team in the nation, are ahead of No. 42 Alabama (5-2), No. 44 Wisconsin (5-2 and ranked No. 5 in the AP Poll just two weeks ago), No. 46 Louisville (4-3), No. 48 Texas A&M (5-2), No. 51 Air Force (5-2), and No. 52 Indiana (5-2). Not too shabby, as the former Opera Man (Adam Sandler) would say on Saturday Night Live.
7) The highest rated team with the same 2-4 record as Washington is Stanford at No. 68. Stanford has played the 4th toughest schedule in the country.
8) North Carolina, which has a 2-5 record, is rated No. 60. The Tar Heels have played the 3rd toughest schedule through college football's week 7.
I know, now you wonder who has played the 2nd toughest schedule. It is 1-6 Notre Dame.
I expect the Huskies to lose against Oregon (hopefully not by 53-7 like cross-state rival Washington State) and California. I predicted this two weeks ago on October 3.
I also predicted on October 3 that Washington would beat (in order) Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State and Hawaii, finishing the year at 7-6. Hang on, Husky fans, the best is yet to come.
Note: See my articles on "How to Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss" and "The Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them" in my Sports Archive.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
College Football - Week 7: Top 2 Ranked Teams Get Burned; Now There Are Only 6 Undefeated Teams Left
Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Top dogs LSU and California were upset over the weekend so now there are only 6 undefeated teams left: Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Arizona State, Kansas and Hawaii.
Three weeks ago there were 23 undefeated teams, now 17 of them have come up sucking pond water on their way to a national championship. It is possible that several of those teams with only one loss could win the national championship when it is all said and done.
Trust me when I say that 5 of the 6 teams left undefeated are in rarified air, only Ohio State is used to being in the hunt for the national championship. The Buckeyes hosted and dispatched a weak Kent State team 48-3 on Saturday.
Keep in mind that Ohio State's 7-0 mark comes playing the 72nd weakest schedule among Division I teams. They do have a defense, but they have not played the best competition.
South Florida extended its record to 6-0 by easily beating Central Florida 64-12. At least the Bulls have played the 31st most difficult schedule among all 242 Division 1-A and 1-AA teams.
Boston College went 7-0 by downing a pathetic 1-6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish squad 27-14. The Eagles may look and sound like a big deal, but given the fact that they have the 79th toughest schedule they probably are not. At least Notre Dame has played some competition; its strength of schedule is currently No. 2 nationally.
Arizona State was trailing Washington 17-13 at the half, but the Huskies collapsed again in the 3rd quarter giving the Sun Devils 21 points as Arizona State went on to win 44-20.
Arizona State has played the 54th toughest schedule; the Huskies (now 2-4) have played the toughest schedule in the country for the past 4 weeks. Nonetheless, first year Coach Dennis Erickson stretches his record to 7-0.
Kansas took care of the woefully weak Baylor Bears 58-10, but the Jayhawks 6-0 mark has come from playing the 126th toughest schedule. Remember that there are only 119 Division 1-A teams.
That leaves Hawaii as the last undefeated team at 7-0. The Warriors beat San Jose State 42-35 in overtime. Hawaii's strength of schedule is 149th among 119 Division 1-A schools. San Jose State's schedule strength is 52nd nationally which might explain why the Warriors were probably lucky to win in OT.
I believe that South Florida (31st toughest schedule) and Arizona State (54th toughest) have the best chance of continuing undefeated. When Boston College, Kansas and Hawaii start playing someone worth talking about, they are going to have their hands full.
Boston College plays only 1 of the current AP Top 25 teams in its last 5 games. Kansas plays only 1 (Missouri) and Hawaii plays none. Hawaii's toughest competition appears to be 5-1 Boise State.
The Boise State Cowboys nipped (and I do mean nipped) Nevada 69-67 Sunday night in what I would not even consider a football game. Sure, it was exciting, but get serious, this is WAC (as in wacky) football at its best, all offense and no defense. Both defenses on the field were all but irrelevant.
The combined 136 points in this Western Athletic Conference game tied the all-time NCAA record for the most points scored in a game. Call it WAC pride.
So who upset LSU? Kentucky won 43-37 in the 3rd overtime playing at home. Up till now, LSU appeared to have one of the best defenses in the country. The Cal Bears lost at home to Oregon State, 31-28.
The AP Top 25 Poll late Sunday showed Ohio State No. 1, South Florida No. 2, Boston College No. 3, Arizona State No. 12, Kansas No. 15 and Hawaii No. 17.
So who is rising in the AP Poll? Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Arizona State, Kansas, Auburn, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas Tech, Michigan and Kansas State.
Many of the teams that are back on the rise now were there earlier and dropped lower in the poll or out of the poll. This reflects parity and the overall weakness of the teams involved.
So who is dropping? LSU, West Virginia, California, USC, Florida, Missouri, Hawaii and Cincinnati.
The top 5 teams that I believe are not overrated are Ohio State, South Florida, South Carolina, Oregon and Arizona State. I am not as impressed with the rest despite their record and where they are ranked.
Note: See my articles on "How to Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss" and "The Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them" in my Sports Archive.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Top dogs LSU and California were upset over the weekend so now there are only 6 undefeated teams left: Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Arizona State, Kansas and Hawaii.
Three weeks ago there were 23 undefeated teams, now 17 of them have come up sucking pond water on their way to a national championship. It is possible that several of those teams with only one loss could win the national championship when it is all said and done.
Trust me when I say that 5 of the 6 teams left undefeated are in rarified air, only Ohio State is used to being in the hunt for the national championship. The Buckeyes hosted and dispatched a weak Kent State team 48-3 on Saturday.
Keep in mind that Ohio State's 7-0 mark comes playing the 72nd weakest schedule among Division I teams. They do have a defense, but they have not played the best competition.
South Florida extended its record to 6-0 by easily beating Central Florida 64-12. At least the Bulls have played the 31st most difficult schedule among all 242 Division 1-A and 1-AA teams.
Boston College went 7-0 by downing a pathetic 1-6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish squad 27-14. The Eagles may look and sound like a big deal, but given the fact that they have the 79th toughest schedule they probably are not. At least Notre Dame has played some competition; its strength of schedule is currently No. 2 nationally.
Arizona State was trailing Washington 17-13 at the half, but the Huskies collapsed again in the 3rd quarter giving the Sun Devils 21 points as Arizona State went on to win 44-20.
Arizona State has played the 54th toughest schedule; the Huskies (now 2-4) have played the toughest schedule in the country for the past 4 weeks. Nonetheless, first year Coach Dennis Erickson stretches his record to 7-0.
Kansas took care of the woefully weak Baylor Bears 58-10, but the Jayhawks 6-0 mark has come from playing the 126th toughest schedule. Remember that there are only 119 Division 1-A teams.
That leaves Hawaii as the last undefeated team at 7-0. The Warriors beat San Jose State 42-35 in overtime. Hawaii's strength of schedule is 149th among 119 Division 1-A schools. San Jose State's schedule strength is 52nd nationally which might explain why the Warriors were probably lucky to win in OT.
I believe that South Florida (31st toughest schedule) and Arizona State (54th toughest) have the best chance of continuing undefeated. When Boston College, Kansas and Hawaii start playing someone worth talking about, they are going to have their hands full.
Boston College plays only 1 of the current AP Top 25 teams in its last 5 games. Kansas plays only 1 (Missouri) and Hawaii plays none. Hawaii's toughest competition appears to be 5-1 Boise State.
The Boise State Cowboys nipped (and I do mean nipped) Nevada 69-67 Sunday night in what I would not even consider a football game. Sure, it was exciting, but get serious, this is WAC (as in wacky) football at its best, all offense and no defense. Both defenses on the field were all but irrelevant.
The combined 136 points in this Western Athletic Conference game tied the all-time NCAA record for the most points scored in a game. Call it WAC pride.
So who upset LSU? Kentucky won 43-37 in the 3rd overtime playing at home. Up till now, LSU appeared to have one of the best defenses in the country. The Cal Bears lost at home to Oregon State, 31-28.
The AP Top 25 Poll late Sunday showed Ohio State No. 1, South Florida No. 2, Boston College No. 3, Arizona State No. 12, Kansas No. 15 and Hawaii No. 17.
So who is rising in the AP Poll? Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Arizona State, Kansas, Auburn, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas Tech, Michigan and Kansas State.
Many of the teams that are back on the rise now were there earlier and dropped lower in the poll or out of the poll. This reflects parity and the overall weakness of the teams involved.
So who is dropping? LSU, West Virginia, California, USC, Florida, Missouri, Hawaii and Cincinnati.
The top 5 teams that I believe are not overrated are Ohio State, South Florida, South Carolina, Oregon and Arizona State. I am not as impressed with the rest despite their record and where they are ranked.
Note: See my articles on "How to Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss" and "The Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them" in my Sports Archive.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
College Football - How to Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss
Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
When you understand how to measure the substance of a college football team, you can often predict an unexpected loss. It is more difficult to predict exactly when it will happen.
When Stanford upset Southern California 24-23 last Saturday (10-6-07) many people were surprised. I was not.
No. 2-ranked USC was a perfect 4-0 coming into the game and had enjoyed 5 straight seasons of national top-4 finishes, BCS bowl appearances and Pac 10 Conference titles.
Stanford was a 6-touchdown underdog, had lost 41-3 at home to Arizona State a week earlier, had lost to USC 42-0 a year ago, and finished last year with a lousy 1-11 record.
So what happened? Study these three sets of figures to identify some clues. The first is the prior week's AP Top 25 Poll, the second is Sagarin's mathematical ratings of a team's performance strength against shared opponents, and the third is Sagarin's mathematical ratings of a team's schedule strength.
The AP Poll is made up of 65 media types who follow and report on college football teams. Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, who produces the gold standard among rating services. Sagarin's ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced by each team, taking into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game.
AP Top 25 Poll - Sagarin Rating - Schedule Rank
1) LSU 1) LSU 1) Washington
2) Southern California 2) Southern California 2) Notre Dame
3) California 3) Ohio State 3) Colorado State
4) Ohio State 4) Oklahoma 4) Stanford
5) Wisconsin 5) California 5) Marshall
6) South Florida 6) South Florida 6) Tennessee
7) Boston College 7) West Virginia 7) Mississippi
8) Kentucky 8) Arizona State 8) North Carolina
9) Florida 9) Florida 9) Colorado
10) Oklahoma 10) Auburn 10) AA Sam Houston
11) South Carolina 11) Oregon 11) Auburn
12) Georgia 12) UCLA 12) Akron
13) West Virginia 13) Georgia 13) Duke
14) Oregon 14) Cincinnati 14) East Carolina
15) Virginia Tech 15) Boston College 15) LA-Monroe
16) Hawaii 16) Kentucky 16) Florida International
17) Missouri 17) South Carolina 17) Florida State
18) Arizona State 18) Missouri 18) Syracuse
19) Texas 19) Kansas State 19) UCLA
20) Cincinnati 20) Connecticut 20) Brigham Young
21) Rutgers 21) Florida State 21) Oregon
22) Clemson 22) Boise State 22) San Diego State
23) Purdue 23) Purdue 23) Washington State
24) Kansas State 24) Wisconsin 24) Wake Forest
25) Nebraska 25) Texas 25) Miami (Ohio)
How could Stanford upset USC? Well, for one thing, although USC has far more talent, its talent did not show up for the game. USC's talent was "at" the game but not "in" the game.
USC was 4-0 and ranked No. 2 going into the game and Stanford was 1-3 and ranked No. 83, yet Stanford had played the 4th toughest schedule in the country before the Cardinal arrived at USC as the visiting team. USC had played the 38th toughest schedule.
You decide if this was a factor or not. I say it was a factor. Certainly, USC did not think Stanford was that tough of an opponent; the Trojans paid a big price by not being prepared.
Here is another example. I have said for weeks that Wisconsin was overrated. The Badgers were 5-0 and ranked No. 5 going into Illinois while the Illini were unranked, but upset Wisconsin 31-26.
Wisconsin may have been ranked No. 5 but its Sagarin rating was No. 24 and the Badgers had played the 90th toughest schedule. Sagarin's rating for Illinois was No. 40, but the Illini had played the 39th toughest schedule.
Still not convinced? Kentucky was 5-0 and ranked No. 8 going into South Carolina and lost to the Gamecocks 38-23.
Kentucky had a Sagarin rating of No. 16 and had played the 92nd toughest schedule. South Carolina was 4-1 and ranked No. 11, had a Sagarin rating of No. 17 and had played the 47th toughest schedule.
In a clash of unbeatens, Purdue was 5-0, ranked No. 23 and hosted the Ohio State Buckeyes who beat them 23-7. Sagarin's rating for Purdue was also No. 23 and the Boilermakers had played the 124th toughest schedule. There is only 119 Division 1-A schools.
Ohio State was also 5-0 and ranked No. 4 with a Sagarin rating of No. 3 and had played the 60th toughest schedule.
Some fans and pundits put no credence in Sagarin. I put a lot of credence in Sagarin's team ratings and schedule rank, and now you know why. I can with some accuracy predict when a team is overrated and due for an unexpected loss.
Note: See weekly wrap-ups of the 2007 college football season and articles on statistics in my Blog Archive.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
When you understand how to measure the substance of a college football team, you can often predict an unexpected loss. It is more difficult to predict exactly when it will happen.
When Stanford upset Southern California 24-23 last Saturday (10-6-07) many people were surprised. I was not.
No. 2-ranked USC was a perfect 4-0 coming into the game and had enjoyed 5 straight seasons of national top-4 finishes, BCS bowl appearances and Pac 10 Conference titles.
Stanford was a 6-touchdown underdog, had lost 41-3 at home to Arizona State a week earlier, had lost to USC 42-0 a year ago, and finished last year with a lousy 1-11 record.
So what happened? Study these three sets of figures to identify some clues. The first is the prior week's AP Top 25 Poll, the second is Sagarin's mathematical ratings of a team's performance strength against shared opponents, and the third is Sagarin's mathematical ratings of a team's schedule strength.
The AP Poll is made up of 65 media types who follow and report on college football teams. Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, who produces the gold standard among rating services. Sagarin's ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced by each team, taking into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game.
AP Top 25 Poll - Sagarin Rating - Schedule Rank
1) LSU 1) LSU 1) Washington
2) Southern California 2) Southern California 2) Notre Dame
3) California 3) Ohio State 3) Colorado State
4) Ohio State 4) Oklahoma 4) Stanford
5) Wisconsin 5) California 5) Marshall
6) South Florida 6) South Florida 6) Tennessee
7) Boston College 7) West Virginia 7) Mississippi
8) Kentucky 8) Arizona State 8) North Carolina
9) Florida 9) Florida 9) Colorado
10) Oklahoma 10) Auburn 10) AA Sam Houston
11) South Carolina 11) Oregon 11) Auburn
12) Georgia 12) UCLA 12) Akron
13) West Virginia 13) Georgia 13) Duke
14) Oregon 14) Cincinnati 14) East Carolina
15) Virginia Tech 15) Boston College 15) LA-Monroe
16) Hawaii 16) Kentucky 16) Florida International
17) Missouri 17) South Carolina 17) Florida State
18) Arizona State 18) Missouri 18) Syracuse
19) Texas 19) Kansas State 19) UCLA
20) Cincinnati 20) Connecticut 20) Brigham Young
21) Rutgers 21) Florida State 21) Oregon
22) Clemson 22) Boise State 22) San Diego State
23) Purdue 23) Purdue 23) Washington State
24) Kansas State 24) Wisconsin 24) Wake Forest
25) Nebraska 25) Texas 25) Miami (Ohio)
How could Stanford upset USC? Well, for one thing, although USC has far more talent, its talent did not show up for the game. USC's talent was "at" the game but not "in" the game.
USC was 4-0 and ranked No. 2 going into the game and Stanford was 1-3 and ranked No. 83, yet Stanford had played the 4th toughest schedule in the country before the Cardinal arrived at USC as the visiting team. USC had played the 38th toughest schedule.
You decide if this was a factor or not. I say it was a factor. Certainly, USC did not think Stanford was that tough of an opponent; the Trojans paid a big price by not being prepared.
Here is another example. I have said for weeks that Wisconsin was overrated. The Badgers were 5-0 and ranked No. 5 going into Illinois while the Illini were unranked, but upset Wisconsin 31-26.
Wisconsin may have been ranked No. 5 but its Sagarin rating was No. 24 and the Badgers had played the 90th toughest schedule. Sagarin's rating for Illinois was No. 40, but the Illini had played the 39th toughest schedule.
Still not convinced? Kentucky was 5-0 and ranked No. 8 going into South Carolina and lost to the Gamecocks 38-23.
Kentucky had a Sagarin rating of No. 16 and had played the 92nd toughest schedule. South Carolina was 4-1 and ranked No. 11, had a Sagarin rating of No. 17 and had played the 47th toughest schedule.
In a clash of unbeatens, Purdue was 5-0, ranked No. 23 and hosted the Ohio State Buckeyes who beat them 23-7. Sagarin's rating for Purdue was also No. 23 and the Boilermakers had played the 124th toughest schedule. There is only 119 Division 1-A schools.
Ohio State was also 5-0 and ranked No. 4 with a Sagarin rating of No. 3 and had played the 60th toughest schedule.
Some fans and pundits put no credence in Sagarin. I put a lot of credence in Sagarin's team ratings and schedule rank, and now you know why. I can with some accuracy predict when a team is overrated and due for an unexpected loss.
Note: See weekly wrap-ups of the 2007 college football season and articles on statistics in my Blog Archive.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
College Football - Week 6: The Attention Is Exciting, But Sooner or Later You Get Found Out
Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Ah, the adulation and attention are so exciting. The approbation from the boosters, the fans, the students, the fellow athletes and the media is unbelievable. You are unbeatable, unstoppable and perhaps the greatest team ever assembled.
They tell you all of this and they tell your opponent nothing. Your opponent is just another walk through game. You are flying at 4-0, you are Southern California, the team that has enjoyed 5 straight seasons of national top-4 finishes, BCS bowl appearances and Pac 10 Conference titles.
You are playing a 6-touchdown underdog, a team that lost 41-3 last week, a team that you beat 42-0 last year, a team that finished with a lousy 1-11 record.
So No. 2-ranked Southern California loses Saturday (10-6-07) to Stanford 24-23. Don't ya just love college football? The excitement of college football makes pro football look boring.
I am not surprised that USC lost a game. The Trojans were lucky to get by Washington a week earlier, winning by a field goal, 27-24, while making a ton of penalties and turnovers. I am surprised that it was Stanford that did it.
A team that is loaded with talent like USC will win every time unless the talent is "at" the game but not "in" the game. Talent simply has to show up every week or even a powerhouse like USC gets embarrassed.
The Trojans are now the new No. 10-ranked team in the AP Top 25 Poll.
Louisiana State remained No. 1 by scoring 14 points in the final quarter to hold off No. 9-ranked Florida, last year's national champion, 28-24. Florida led at the half 17-7. LSU is 6-0.
Unbeaten and No. 5-ranked Wisconsin, a team I have said all year was overrated, finally proved it by losing to unranked Illinois 31-26 on the road.
Unbeaten and No. 8-ranked Kentucky, another team I have said is overrated, proved it by losing to No. 11 South Carolina, 38-23.
Unbeaten and No. 23-ranked Purdue, another team I have said is overrated, proved it by losing to No. 4-ranked Ohio State, 23-7.
Unbeaten and No. 6-ranked South Florida had more than its hands full in getting by Florida Atlantic 35-23.
Unbeaten and No. 17-ranked Missouri put a major butt-whipping on No. 25-ranked Nebraska, 41-6. I have been dumping on Nebraska as unworthy of any ranking for weeks and finally the Cornhuskers have been booted out of the Top 25 Poll. Amen.
Unbeaten and unranked Kansas upended No.24-ranked Kansas State 30-24 and the Jayhawks are now ranked No. 20. Kansas is off to its first 5-0 start in 29 years.
No. 22-ranked Clemson lost to No. 15-ranked Virginia Tech 41-23 and fell out of the poll.
Unbeaten and No. 16-ranked Hawaii ripped over winless and hapless Utah State 52-37. Utah State is 0-6; Hawaii is 6-0.
Unbeaten and No. 20-ranked Cincinnati upset No. 21 Rutgers on the road, 28-23. Cincinnati is now 6-0 but faces a much tougher schedule as it travels to Pittsburgh and South Florida and faces Connecticut and West Virginia at home.
Three teams that I wished well and hoped would do well have now dropped in my estimation.
One is Alabama with new Coach Nick Saban. Alabama went to 4-2 by getting by Houston, 30-24, but that is not saying much. Apparently Saban does not have much talent in Crimson Tide country. It will take him two more seasons to put real winners in place.
Another is Michigan State with new Coach Mark Dantonio. The Spartans lost at home to Northwestern, 48-41, in overtime. Not a good sign for Dantonio. MSU lost last weekend at Wisconsin to an overrated bunch of Badgers 37-34.
Spartan players are going to have to learn how to win, and that is not easy when you have a culture of choking and losing to even mediocre teams. Dantonio, a great defensive coach, can score points but apparently has very little defense when it matters. You cannot win in the Big 10 without great defense.
A third disappointment is Arizona State, and the Sun Devils with new first-year Coach Dennis Erickson are still unbeaten at 6-0. Ranked at No. 18, the Sun Devils just managed to get by Washington State, 23-20, not a good showing given that the Cougars—a team Erickson use to coach—have lost 4 of 6 games. The Cougars missed a 46-yard field goal with 12 seconds left that would have sent the game into overtime.
Granted Arizona State was on the road, but it needed to beat Washington State by at least three touchdowns to be impressive and could not.
Games like Texas-Oklahoma, Boston College-Bowling Green and Georgia-Tennessee fail to interest me. Thank goodness for my bottom feeders—Buffalo, Wyoming and UTEP.
God Bless the Buffalo Bulls who polished off the Ohio Bobcats 31-10 for a homecoming victory. Go Bulls! I would like to see Buffalo knock off Toledo at home this weekend. Buffalo has been one of the lowest rated teams in college football in recent years, and I am happy to see the Bulls have some real success.
Get excited, Buffalo fans, the Bulls actually have an offense! James Starks ran for a career-best 183 yards against Ohio. Maybe we should call him James "Scamper" Starks. Hello, University of Buffalo, is anybody home?
Another team I like is Wyoming because the Cowboys win at home. TCU found that out again this week when the Cowboys rode them to a 24-21 victory. Wyoming defensive end Mitch Unrein was tabbed as Mountain West Conference's Defensive Player of the Week.
I am convinced that if some ranked team came into Cowboy country they just might leave a loser. Heck, Wyoming is now 4-1 on the season. Go Cowboys!
Mike Price's Texas-El Paso team edged by Tulsa in a typical high-scoring game, 48-47. UTEP climbed to 4-2 and the Miners have just as good a chance as any team to win the Conference USA title.
UTEP's redshirt freshman quarterback Trevor Vittatoe was named Conference USA Offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns against Tulsa.
Mike Price turned around UTEP football in a hurry. Football is not just conversation in Texas, football is serious business in Texas. Everything is large in Texas, including the UTEP victories. Go Miners!
Note: See weekly wrap-ups of the 2007 college football season and articles on statistics in my Sports Archive.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
Ah, the adulation and attention are so exciting. The approbation from the boosters, the fans, the students, the fellow athletes and the media is unbelievable. You are unbeatable, unstoppable and perhaps the greatest team ever assembled.
They tell you all of this and they tell your opponent nothing. Your opponent is just another walk through game. You are flying at 4-0, you are Southern California, the team that has enjoyed 5 straight seasons of national top-4 finishes, BCS bowl appearances and Pac 10 Conference titles.
You are playing a 6-touchdown underdog, a team that lost 41-3 last week, a team that you beat 42-0 last year, a team that finished with a lousy 1-11 record.
So No. 2-ranked Southern California loses Saturday (10-6-07) to Stanford 24-23. Don't ya just love college football? The excitement of college football makes pro football look boring.
I am not surprised that USC lost a game. The Trojans were lucky to get by Washington a week earlier, winning by a field goal, 27-24, while making a ton of penalties and turnovers. I am surprised that it was Stanford that did it.
A team that is loaded with talent like USC will win every time unless the talent is "at" the game but not "in" the game. Talent simply has to show up every week or even a powerhouse like USC gets embarrassed.
The Trojans are now the new No. 10-ranked team in the AP Top 25 Poll.
Louisiana State remained No. 1 by scoring 14 points in the final quarter to hold off No. 9-ranked Florida, last year's national champion, 28-24. Florida led at the half 17-7. LSU is 6-0.
Unbeaten and No. 5-ranked Wisconsin, a team I have said all year was overrated, finally proved it by losing to unranked Illinois 31-26 on the road.
Unbeaten and No. 8-ranked Kentucky, another team I have said is overrated, proved it by losing to No. 11 South Carolina, 38-23.
Unbeaten and No. 23-ranked Purdue, another team I have said is overrated, proved it by losing to No. 4-ranked Ohio State, 23-7.
Unbeaten and No. 6-ranked South Florida had more than its hands full in getting by Florida Atlantic 35-23.
Unbeaten and No. 17-ranked Missouri put a major butt-whipping on No. 25-ranked Nebraska, 41-6. I have been dumping on Nebraska as unworthy of any ranking for weeks and finally the Cornhuskers have been booted out of the Top 25 Poll. Amen.
Unbeaten and unranked Kansas upended No.24-ranked Kansas State 30-24 and the Jayhawks are now ranked No. 20. Kansas is off to its first 5-0 start in 29 years.
No. 22-ranked Clemson lost to No. 15-ranked Virginia Tech 41-23 and fell out of the poll.
Unbeaten and No. 16-ranked Hawaii ripped over winless and hapless Utah State 52-37. Utah State is 0-6; Hawaii is 6-0.
Unbeaten and No. 20-ranked Cincinnati upset No. 21 Rutgers on the road, 28-23. Cincinnati is now 6-0 but faces a much tougher schedule as it travels to Pittsburgh and South Florida and faces Connecticut and West Virginia at home.
Three teams that I wished well and hoped would do well have now dropped in my estimation.
One is Alabama with new Coach Nick Saban. Alabama went to 4-2 by getting by Houston, 30-24, but that is not saying much. Apparently Saban does not have much talent in Crimson Tide country. It will take him two more seasons to put real winners in place.
Another is Michigan State with new Coach Mark Dantonio. The Spartans lost at home to Northwestern, 48-41, in overtime. Not a good sign for Dantonio. MSU lost last weekend at Wisconsin to an overrated bunch of Badgers 37-34.
Spartan players are going to have to learn how to win, and that is not easy when you have a culture of choking and losing to even mediocre teams. Dantonio, a great defensive coach, can score points but apparently has very little defense when it matters. You cannot win in the Big 10 without great defense.
A third disappointment is Arizona State, and the Sun Devils with new first-year Coach Dennis Erickson are still unbeaten at 6-0. Ranked at No. 18, the Sun Devils just managed to get by Washington State, 23-20, not a good showing given that the Cougars—a team Erickson use to coach—have lost 4 of 6 games. The Cougars missed a 46-yard field goal with 12 seconds left that would have sent the game into overtime.
Granted Arizona State was on the road, but it needed to beat Washington State by at least three touchdowns to be impressive and could not.
Games like Texas-Oklahoma, Boston College-Bowling Green and Georgia-Tennessee fail to interest me. Thank goodness for my bottom feeders—Buffalo, Wyoming and UTEP.
God Bless the Buffalo Bulls who polished off the Ohio Bobcats 31-10 for a homecoming victory. Go Bulls! I would like to see Buffalo knock off Toledo at home this weekend. Buffalo has been one of the lowest rated teams in college football in recent years, and I am happy to see the Bulls have some real success.
Get excited, Buffalo fans, the Bulls actually have an offense! James Starks ran for a career-best 183 yards against Ohio. Maybe we should call him James "Scamper" Starks. Hello, University of Buffalo, is anybody home?
Another team I like is Wyoming because the Cowboys win at home. TCU found that out again this week when the Cowboys rode them to a 24-21 victory. Wyoming defensive end Mitch Unrein was tabbed as Mountain West Conference's Defensive Player of the Week.
I am convinced that if some ranked team came into Cowboy country they just might leave a loser. Heck, Wyoming is now 4-1 on the season. Go Cowboys!
Mike Price's Texas-El Paso team edged by Tulsa in a typical high-scoring game, 48-47. UTEP climbed to 4-2 and the Miners have just as good a chance as any team to win the Conference USA title.
UTEP's redshirt freshman quarterback Trevor Vittatoe was named Conference USA Offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns against Tulsa.
Mike Price turned around UTEP football in a hurry. Football is not just conversation in Texas, football is serious business in Texas. Everything is large in Texas, including the UTEP victories. Go Miners!
Note: See weekly wrap-ups of the 2007 college football season and articles on statistics in my Sports Archive.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
College Football: Washington Lost to USC 27-24 But the Huskies Could Have Easily Won
Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
The USC Trojans blew into Husky Stadium Saturday (9-29-07) looking to put another notch on their armor as the AP's No. 1-ranked team in the nation.
They left with a 27-24 victory marred by 16 penalties, 2 interceptions, a fumble and a blocked punt, including one interception that senior strong safety Mesphin Forrester returned for a 54-yard touchdown.
USC Coach Pete Carroll looked upset, sometimes confused and totally aggravated by his team's inept showing, and well he should have been because Washington could have easily won the game if not for its youth and exuberance.
At one point Jake Locker, the Huskies' redshirt freshman quarterback, had senior wide receiver Corey Williams open in the end zone and could not connect.
Junior cornerback Byron Davenport had an apparent interception in the end zone that a replay showed was incomplete when the ball hit the ground before he gained possession. USC went on to kick a field goal that proved to be the difference in the game.
Washington, trailing 27-17, pulled within 3 when senior cornerback Roy Lewis blocked a punt, returned the ball to the USC 9 and Locker ran it in. However, USC got possession on the ensuing onside kick attempt and ran out the clock.
Once again, the Huskies could not finish off an opponent due to errors and missed opportunities.
It is amazing that Washington allowed two Trojans to rush for more than 100 yards, gave up 224 yards rushing and 236 yards passing which allowed USC 9 minutes more of possession on offense, and Washington still only lost by a field goal.
Washington honored its 1960 national championship team members Saturday, and the Huskies played in 1960 replica uniforms which unfortunately could not block, tackle, run, pass or catch the ball.
Before any die-hard Husky fans get upset about another loss, consider these facts:
1) USC has had 5 consecutive seasons of national top-4 finishes, BCS bowl appearances and Pacific 10 (Pac 10) Conference titles.
2) The Trojans came into the game with the 10th best rushing offense in the nation, and the 8th best rushing defense.
3) USC was ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25 Poll and rated as the No. 1 team by Sagarin.
The Huskies are off next week before traveling to Arizona State on October 13 to face Dennis Erickson's Sun Devils, who are 5-0 after beating San Jose State, Colorado, San Diego State, Oregon State and Stanford.
Arizona State is ranked No. 18 in the AP Poll and rated No. 8 by Sagarin. The fact that Sagarin rates them No. 8 means the Sun Devils are better than their No. 18 ranking.
I do not expect Washington to upset Arizona State, which would drop the Huskies' season record to 2-4. No big deal. I also expect Washington to lose to California and Oregon at home.
I see the Huskies biggest game of the season against Arizona at home for homecoming. This is the first game Washington must win in order to have a winning season and secure a bowl bid.
Then Washington needs to get the best of Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State and Hawaii to post 7 wins against 6 losses. Can they do it? I will be personally disappointed if they do not.
I consider the losses to Ohio State, UCLA and USC, and future expected losses to Arizona State, Oregon and California as tune-ups and learning experiences for the wins to come.
Should Washington upset Arizona State, Oregon or California it would be a sweet reward for some deserving first-year players who are playing their hearts out and getting embarrassed too often.
In order to win the games I am projecting, Washington needs to immediately improve in at least two areas.
First, they need to open holes for senior tailback Louis Rankin. All of this crap about Rankin not being able to get rushing yards is just that, crap. Rankin has more in common with Seattle Seahawks Shaun Alexander than people think.
Alexander does not get yardage unless the Seahawk offensive line opens holes for him to run through. Give Rankin any running room and he will gain big yardage.
Second, Jake Locker needs time to throw, and he needs to become a more accurate passer so that when his receivers get open he delivers the ball and they catch it and run.
USC teed off on Locker and darn near injured him with vicious hits, even helmet to helmet shots. Locker may be as tough as nails, but no one can put up with the hits he has been getting while trying to do too much. He needs more of his teammates to step up and become the players they were meant to be.
Note: See more articles on Washington Husky football in my Sports Archive.
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
The USC Trojans blew into Husky Stadium Saturday (9-29-07) looking to put another notch on their armor as the AP's No. 1-ranked team in the nation.
They left with a 27-24 victory marred by 16 penalties, 2 interceptions, a fumble and a blocked punt, including one interception that senior strong safety Mesphin Forrester returned for a 54-yard touchdown.
USC Coach Pete Carroll looked upset, sometimes confused and totally aggravated by his team's inept showing, and well he should have been because Washington could have easily won the game if not for its youth and exuberance.
At one point Jake Locker, the Huskies' redshirt freshman quarterback, had senior wide receiver Corey Williams open in the end zone and could not connect.
Junior cornerback Byron Davenport had an apparent interception in the end zone that a replay showed was incomplete when the ball hit the ground before he gained possession. USC went on to kick a field goal that proved to be the difference in the game.
Washington, trailing 27-17, pulled within 3 when senior cornerback Roy Lewis blocked a punt, returned the ball to the USC 9 and Locker ran it in. However, USC got possession on the ensuing onside kick attempt and ran out the clock.
Once again, the Huskies could not finish off an opponent due to errors and missed opportunities.
It is amazing that Washington allowed two Trojans to rush for more than 100 yards, gave up 224 yards rushing and 236 yards passing which allowed USC 9 minutes more of possession on offense, and Washington still only lost by a field goal.
Washington honored its 1960 national championship team members Saturday, and the Huskies played in 1960 replica uniforms which unfortunately could not block, tackle, run, pass or catch the ball.
Before any die-hard Husky fans get upset about another loss, consider these facts:
1) USC has had 5 consecutive seasons of national top-4 finishes, BCS bowl appearances and Pacific 10 (Pac 10) Conference titles.
2) The Trojans came into the game with the 10th best rushing offense in the nation, and the 8th best rushing defense.
3) USC was ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25 Poll and rated as the No. 1 team by Sagarin.
The Huskies are off next week before traveling to Arizona State on October 13 to face Dennis Erickson's Sun Devils, who are 5-0 after beating San Jose State, Colorado, San Diego State, Oregon State and Stanford.
Arizona State is ranked No. 18 in the AP Poll and rated No. 8 by Sagarin. The fact that Sagarin rates them No. 8 means the Sun Devils are better than their No. 18 ranking.
I do not expect Washington to upset Arizona State, which would drop the Huskies' season record to 2-4. No big deal. I also expect Washington to lose to California and Oregon at home.
I see the Huskies biggest game of the season against Arizona at home for homecoming. This is the first game Washington must win in order to have a winning season and secure a bowl bid.
Then Washington needs to get the best of Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State and Hawaii to post 7 wins against 6 losses. Can they do it? I will be personally disappointed if they do not.
I consider the losses to Ohio State, UCLA and USC, and future expected losses to Arizona State, Oregon and California as tune-ups and learning experiences for the wins to come.
Should Washington upset Arizona State, Oregon or California it would be a sweet reward for some deserving first-year players who are playing their hearts out and getting embarrassed too often.
In order to win the games I am projecting, Washington needs to immediately improve in at least two areas.
First, they need to open holes for senior tailback Louis Rankin. All of this crap about Rankin not being able to get rushing yards is just that, crap. Rankin has more in common with Seattle Seahawks Shaun Alexander than people think.
Alexander does not get yardage unless the Seahawk offensive line opens holes for him to run through. Give Rankin any running room and he will gain big yardage.
Second, Jake Locker needs time to throw, and he needs to become a more accurate passer so that when his receivers get open he delivers the ball and they catch it and run.
USC teed off on Locker and darn near injured him with vicious hits, even helmet to helmet shots. Locker may be as tough as nails, but no one can put up with the hits he has been getting while trying to do too much. He needs more of his teammates to step up and become the players they were meant to be.
Note: See more articles on Washington Husky football in my Sports Archive.
College Football - Week 5: There Are Contenders and Pretenders, 9 of 25 Top Teams Get a Reality Check
(Editor's Note: All rankings used in this article are from the AP Top 25 Poll and all team ratings used are from Sagarin, the gold standard among rating services.)
Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
In the world of college football there are pretenders and contenders. Nine of AP's Top 25 teams and 3 of the top 5 were given a reality check over the weekend.
Was I surprised at this annual occurrence? Hardly. When you start analyzing how some of the teams started the week at 4-0 and ended it at 4-1, it is as easy to see as your face in a mirror. Reality has a way of revealing all of the wrinkles and weaknesses.
For openers, there are the No.3 Oklahoma Sooners who lost a Big 12 Conference game 27-24 by a last second field goal in Colorado to the Buffalos. Oklahoma dropped to No. 10 in the Top 25.
The Sooners got to their lofty No. 3 ranking by beating No. 170th rated North Texas, No. 145th rated Utah State, No. 58th rated Tulsa and No. 44th rated Miami (FL). Their offense ran up big scores on everybody, but their strength of schedule was only the 100th best in the country.
Urban Meyer and his defending national champion Florida Gators fared no better. They lost 20-17 by a field goal at home to Auburn in a SEC Conference game. Florida was behind 17-3 going into the 4th quarter.
The loss snapped an 11-game winning streak for the Gators who suffered their first home loss under Urban Meyer. Meyer's team had won 18 in-a-row at home, 17 since Meyer took over in 2005.
The Gators got to their No. 4 ranking by getting the best of No. 110 Western Kentucky, No. 85 Mississippi, No. 77 Troy and No. 32 Tennessee, an SEC opponent. Beating Tennessee is what vaulted Florida up in the rankings. Florida dropped to No. 9 in the rankings.
No. 5 West Virginia ran smack into No. 18 South Florida in a Big East face-off in South Florida and lost 21-13. Coach Jim Leavitt and his South Florida Bulls are quickly becoming the team no one wants to face, and THE story of the college football season.
West Virginia dropped from No. 5 to No. 13 in the rankings while South Florida moved up from No. 18 to No. 6.
West Virginia got to its No. 5 ranking by taking down No. 129 Marshall, No. 94 Western Michigan, No. 74 East Carolina and No. 51 Maryland. Mountaineer fans who expected West Virginia to go undefeated this year and win the national title need to regroup.
No. 7 Texas got really found out and embarrassed at home against Kansas State in another Big 12 game as the Wildcats dumped on the Longhorns, 41-21. I have been questioning Texas' stature since the beginning of the year, and now my suspicions have been validated.
Texas got to 4-0 by defeating No. 162 Rice, No. 100 Arkansas State, No. 73 Central Florida and No. 54 TCU. Particularly telling was Central Florida, which Texas beat by a field goal while giving up 32 points. Texas, who is rated No. 25 by Sagarin, dropped to No. 19, a much more realistic place for the Longhorns to lounge.
No. 10 Rutgers, the darlings of the Big East, were upset at home by Maryland 34-24, and dropped to No. 21. I believe Rutgers will soon drop out of the Top 25 as two 5-0 teams in the Big East—No. 20 Cincinnati and unranked Connecticut--are being overlooked.
Rutgers rose to No. 10 by whipping up on No. 208 AA Norfolk State, No. 142 Buffalo and No. 68 Navy. Good grief, talk about a lame schedule. They deserve what they get.
Sagarin rates Rutgers at No. 38; even that seems high to me at the moment.
No. 11 Oregon played host to No. 6 California in a Pac 10 matchup and led 14-10 going into the 4th quarter but the Bears scored three touchdowns in the last 15 minutes to put them away, 31-24.
Worse yet, the Ducks' Cameron Colvin scored what appeared to be the tying touchdown in the final seconds, but he fumbled and the ball went out of the end zone, giving California a touchback and a victory when the play was reviewed. Duck fans in Autzen Stadium realized the errant play may have cost them a national championship down the road.
Oregon dropped to No. 14 in the Top 25 and California rose from No. 6 to No. 3.
No. 13 Clemson traveled to Georgia Tech and saw its dream season begin to unravel as the Yellow Jacket defense held the Tigers to a field goal in winning, 13-3. Clemson dropped to No. 22.
The Tigers got into the Top 25 by handling No. 154 AA Furman, No. 133 Louisiana-Monroe, No. 87 North Carolina State and No. 21 Florida State. Clemson rose in the standings by beating No. 21-rated Florida State 24-18 in its opener.
Sagarin rates Clemson No. 34, no where near the Top 25. Clemson could drop out of the Top 25 in a heartbeat.
Joe Paterno's No. 21 Penn State Nittany Lions started the season at 3-0 before losing to a rejuvenated Michigan in the Big House, 14-9, and now loses his second Big 10 game to Illinois 27-20 at Illinois.
Going on the road in Big 10 Conference games has suddenly become hard for Penn State as it dropped right out of the Top 25.
Again, Penn State started its season by running up scores on the worst Division 1-A school in college football, No. 171 Florida International, the 7th worst team in Division 1-A, No. 142 Buffalo, and the apparently hapless No. 95 and winless Notre Dame. What were those fans in Happy Valley thinking? A national championship? Think again.
No. 22 Alabama was the 9th of the Top 25 teams to lose when first year Coach Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide paid a visit to Florida State and lost 21-14. Alabama dropped right out of the Top 25 after arriving just a week earlier. Sagarin now rates Alabama at No. 39.
I thought Saban might have kept Alabama rising; I now have to readjust my expectations for the Crimson Tide.
And so the nasty 9—Oklahoma, Florida, West Virginia, Texas, Rutgers, Oregon, Clemson, Penn State and Alabama—all fell but the No. 1 USC Trojans managed to escape by barely defeating Washington at Husky Stadium by a field goal 27-24.
USC committed 16 penalties, threw 2 interceptions, lost a fumble and suffered a blocked punt and yet prevailed to retain its perfect 5-0 record. The 2-3 Washington Huskies are not exactly a powerhouse yet are rated No. 27 by Sagarin, not too shabby.
By being so unimpressive, USC slipped to No. 2 as the LSU Tigers took over the top spot.
LSU blew past No. 144-rated, in-state rival Tulane, 34-9, after ripping apart No. 57 Mississippi State 45-0, No. 28 Virginia Tech 48-7 and No. 125 Middle Tennessee 44-0. LSU's best win came at home against No. 17 South Carolina 28-16. Sagarin rates LSU No. 1 in the country.
Only one other game really caught my attention and that was No. 9 Wisconsin spotting Michigan State 34 points and then winning by a field goal at home. The Badgers rose to No. 5 among the Top 25.
I still think Wisconsin is not that good. Sagarin rates Wisconsin at No. 24. The Badgers still have away games at Illinois, Penn State and Ohio State, then host Michigan. After those 4 games I doubt Wisconsin will be 11-0 going into their last game at Minnesota.
Teams in the Top 25 start losing at this point in the season because they purposefully schedule weak teams early on to give their players confidence, rise in the Top 25 rankings, give their boosters hope, and bring attention to their programs.
Once conference play starts, the messing around is over, as the nasty 9 found out over the weekend.
Note: See weekly wrap-ups of the 2007 college football season and articles on statistics in my Sports Archive.
Ed's Sports Corner:
Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley
In the world of college football there are pretenders and contenders. Nine of AP's Top 25 teams and 3 of the top 5 were given a reality check over the weekend.
Was I surprised at this annual occurrence? Hardly. When you start analyzing how some of the teams started the week at 4-0 and ended it at 4-1, it is as easy to see as your face in a mirror. Reality has a way of revealing all of the wrinkles and weaknesses.
For openers, there are the No.3 Oklahoma Sooners who lost a Big 12 Conference game 27-24 by a last second field goal in Colorado to the Buffalos. Oklahoma dropped to No. 10 in the Top 25.
The Sooners got to their lofty No. 3 ranking by beating No. 170th rated North Texas, No. 145th rated Utah State, No. 58th rated Tulsa and No. 44th rated Miami (FL). Their offense ran up big scores on everybody, but their strength of schedule was only the 100th best in the country.
Urban Meyer and his defending national champion Florida Gators fared no better. They lost 20-17 by a field goal at home to Auburn in a SEC Conference game. Florida was behind 17-3 going into the 4th quarter.
The loss snapped an 11-game winning streak for the Gators who suffered their first home loss under Urban Meyer. Meyer's team had won 18 in-a-row at home, 17 since Meyer took over in 2005.
The Gators got to their No. 4 ranking by getting the best of No. 110 Western Kentucky, No. 85 Mississippi, No. 77 Troy and No. 32 Tennessee, an SEC opponent. Beating Tennessee is what vaulted Florida up in the rankings. Florida dropped to No. 9 in the rankings.
No. 5 West Virginia ran smack into No. 18 South Florida in a Big East face-off in South Florida and lost 21-13. Coach Jim Leavitt and his South Florida Bulls are quickly becoming the team no one wants to face, and THE story of the college football season.
West Virginia dropped from No. 5 to No. 13 in the rankings while South Florida moved up from No. 18 to No. 6.
West Virginia got to its No. 5 ranking by taking down No. 129 Marshall, No. 94 Western Michigan, No. 74 East Carolina and No. 51 Maryland. Mountaineer fans who expected West Virginia to go undefeated this year and win the national title need to regroup.
No. 7 Texas got really found out and embarrassed at home against Kansas State in another Big 12 game as the Wildcats dumped on the Longhorns, 41-21. I have been questioning Texas' stature since the beginning of the year, and now my suspicions have been validated.
Texas got to 4-0 by defeating No. 162 Rice, No. 100 Arkansas State, No. 73 Central Florida and No. 54 TCU. Particularly telling was Central Florida, which Texas beat by a field goal while giving up 32 points. Texas, who is rated No. 25 by Sagarin, dropped to No. 19, a much more realistic place for the Longhorns to lounge.
No. 10 Rutgers, the darlings of the Big East, were upset at home by Maryland 34-24, and dropped to No. 21. I believe Rutgers will soon drop out of the Top 25 as two 5-0 teams in the Big East—No. 20 Cincinnati and unranked Connecticut--are being overlooked.
Rutgers rose to No. 10 by whipping up on No. 208 AA Norfolk State, No. 142 Buffalo and No. 68 Navy. Good grief, talk about a lame schedule. They deserve what they get.
Sagarin rates Rutgers at No. 38; even that seems high to me at the moment.
No. 11 Oregon played host to No. 6 California in a Pac 10 matchup and led 14-10 going into the 4th quarter but the Bears scored three touchdowns in the last 15 minutes to put them away, 31-24.
Worse yet, the Ducks' Cameron Colvin scored what appeared to be the tying touchdown in the final seconds, but he fumbled and the ball went out of the end zone, giving California a touchback and a victory when the play was reviewed. Duck fans in Autzen Stadium realized the errant play may have cost them a national championship down the road.
Oregon dropped to No. 14 in the Top 25 and California rose from No. 6 to No. 3.
No. 13 Clemson traveled to Georgia Tech and saw its dream season begin to unravel as the Yellow Jacket defense held the Tigers to a field goal in winning, 13-3. Clemson dropped to No. 22.
The Tigers got into the Top 25 by handling No. 154 AA Furman, No. 133 Louisiana-Monroe, No. 87 North Carolina State and No. 21 Florida State. Clemson rose in the standings by beating No. 21-rated Florida State 24-18 in its opener.
Sagarin rates Clemson No. 34, no where near the Top 25. Clemson could drop out of the Top 25 in a heartbeat.
Joe Paterno's No. 21 Penn State Nittany Lions started the season at 3-0 before losing to a rejuvenated Michigan in the Big House, 14-9, and now loses his second Big 10 game to Illinois 27-20 at Illinois.
Going on the road in Big 10 Conference games has suddenly become hard for Penn State as it dropped right out of the Top 25.
Again, Penn State started its season by running up scores on the worst Division 1-A school in college football, No. 171 Florida International, the 7th worst team in Division 1-A, No. 142 Buffalo, and the apparently hapless No. 95 and winless Notre Dame. What were those fans in Happy Valley thinking? A national championship? Think again.
No. 22 Alabama was the 9th of the Top 25 teams to lose when first year Coach Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide paid a visit to Florida State and lost 21-14. Alabama dropped right out of the Top 25 after arriving just a week earlier. Sagarin now rates Alabama at No. 39.
I thought Saban might have kept Alabama rising; I now have to readjust my expectations for the Crimson Tide.
And so the nasty 9—Oklahoma, Florida, West Virginia, Texas, Rutgers, Oregon, Clemson, Penn State and Alabama—all fell but the No. 1 USC Trojans managed to escape by barely defeating Washington at Husky Stadium by a field goal 27-24.
USC committed 16 penalties, threw 2 interceptions, lost a fumble and suffered a blocked punt and yet prevailed to retain its perfect 5-0 record. The 2-3 Washington Huskies are not exactly a powerhouse yet are rated No. 27 by Sagarin, not too shabby.
By being so unimpressive, USC slipped to No. 2 as the LSU Tigers took over the top spot.
LSU blew past No. 144-rated, in-state rival Tulane, 34-9, after ripping apart No. 57 Mississippi State 45-0, No. 28 Virginia Tech 48-7 and No. 125 Middle Tennessee 44-0. LSU's best win came at home against No. 17 South Carolina 28-16. Sagarin rates LSU No. 1 in the country.
Only one other game really caught my attention and that was No. 9 Wisconsin spotting Michigan State 34 points and then winning by a field goal at home. The Badgers rose to No. 5 among the Top 25.
I still think Wisconsin is not that good. Sagarin rates Wisconsin at No. 24. The Badgers still have away games at Illinois, Penn State and Ohio State, then host Michigan. After those 4 games I doubt Wisconsin will be 11-0 going into their last game at Minnesota.
Teams in the Top 25 start losing at this point in the season because they purposefully schedule weak teams early on to give their players confidence, rise in the Top 25 rankings, give their boosters hope, and bring attention to their programs.
Once conference play starts, the messing around is over, as the nasty 9 found out over the weekend.
Note: See weekly wrap-ups of the 2007 college football season and articles on statistics in my Sports Archive.
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